Chinese
3 quarters management circumstance sums up our country chemical fertilizer
From;    Author:Stand originally
Output of chemical fertilizer of our country of before this year 3 quarters grows steadily. 1-9 month, total output of domestic chemical fertilizer achieves forty-four million seven hundred and forty-eight thousand tons, grew 4.80% compared to the same period. But 3 quarters crop is added fast put delay apparently, crop of chemical fertilizer of the 3rd quarter achieves 14.73 million tons, grow 2.63% compared to the same period, be less than first half of the year of 5.90% add compared to the same period fast.
Annulus of price of 3 quarters chemical fertilizer rises than continueing. Although value of product of domestic chemical fertilizer falls since September apparent, but as a result of 7, chemical fertilizer price will continue in August perch is maintained, made sure value of 3 quarters product continues to rise thereby. The market of urea of our country of the 3rd quarter, phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer all valence is 2408 yuan respectively / ton (annulus comparing rises 8.88%) , 4258 yuan / ton (annulus comparing rises 1.84%) mixes 4808 yuan / ton (annulus comparing rises 19.96%) .

The growth of outstanding achievement of before 3 quarters, can not mask weak quarter outstanding achievement glide. Accept the restriction of data, we can obtain the industry profit data of before this year 8 months only. Data shows, industry of fertilizer of before this year 8 months achieves profit total 24.8 billion yuan, grew 47.37% compared to the same period. But the gain that 6-8 month realizes is 10.1 billion yuan, relatively 3-5 month dropped 6.75% .

Fertilizer industry appears on the market the pay off table of the gain state of the company and entire industry agrees basically now, namely outstanding achievement of before 3 quarters grows considerably, but annulus of weak quarter outstanding achievement glides than appearing however. Appear on the market according to already announcing the fertilizer industry of quarterly reports company data, the net gain that industry of fertilizer of before 2008 3 quarters realizes vest in parent company in all 3.64 billion yuan, grew 50.20% compared to the same period; But annulus compared the net gain of the vest in parent company that the 3rd quarter realizes to drop however 23.78% .

The gain of fertilizer industry already went bit higher. Get oil gas price considerably the influence of fall after a rise, fall after a rise of price of product of international chemical fertilizer is more, can conduct home thereby. In dollar of 60-90 of predicting crude price / the bucket is fluctuant, drive chemical fertilizer price to walk along high cost factor to be eliminated basically. And add as economy fast put delay, the farmer will be cut defray, affect demand of global chemical fertilizer thereby. Consequently we think in the near future fertilizer industry profit will not exceed 2008.

fertilizer industry investment grade is added by “ hold ” key is low to “ neutral ” . Although because policy may appear,we predict to become loose, make thereby domestic urea price will appear first half of the year 2009 slow glide posture, but already passed bit higher as a result of industry boom, quarterly annulus glides than outstanding achievement, our key became low the investment grade of the industry.
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